---------- Forwarded message ----------
From:
Brian Dillon <bdillon2@uw.edu>Date: Tue, Feb 20, 2018 at 3:03 PM
Subject: [jsde] Paul Christian -- Joint Seminar in Development Economics on Monday, February 26
To:
jsde@u.washington.eduPlease join us
Monday, February 26, for the Joint Seminar in Development Economics with Paul Christian from the World Bank. The seminar is from
11:00am - 12:30pm in Savery 410. Title and abstract below, and the paper is attached. We hope to see you there!
______________________________________________
Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict: A Methodological Caution
Paul Christian and Christopher B. Barrett
A popular identification strategy in non-experimental
panel data uses instrumental variables constructed by
interacting exogenous but potentially spurious time series
or spatial variables with endogenous exposure variables to
generate identifying variation through assumptions like
those of differences-in-differences estimators. Revisiting a
celebrated study linking food aid and conflict shows that this strategy is susceptible to bias arising from spurious
trends. Re-randomization and Monte Carlo simulations
show that the strategy identifies a spurious relationship
even when the true effect could be non-causal or causal
in the opposite direction, invalidating the claim that aid
causes conflict and providing a caution for similar strategies.
-- Assistant Professor
Evans School of Public Policy and Governance
University of Washington
Seattle, WA 98195
bdillon2@uw.edu
All emails sent to or from this address are subject to public records requests under State of Washington law.
______________________________
_________________
jsde mailing list
jsde@u.washington.edu
http://mailman11.u.washington.edu/mailman/listinfo/jsde